CL
Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered RevPAR up 4% to $127 on 35 comparable hotels, occupancy +4 pts to 72% and flat ADR at $176; Adjusted EBITDA was $17.9M and AFFO per diluted share was $0.14, with diluted EPS at $(0.01) .
- Results modestly beat Street: revenue $68.6M vs consensus ~$68.3M, EPS $(0.01) vs $(0.07), and Adjusted EBITDA $17.9M vs ~$17.7M; normalized net income surprised positively versus a negative consensus estimate (S&P Global) *.
- Guidance reset lower for FY 2025: RevPAR growth to 0–1% (from 1–3.5%), Adjusted EBITDA to $89–$93M (from $92–$97M), AFFO/share to $0.95–$1.03 (from $1.01–$1.11), primarily reflecting April softness and portfolio changes .
- Capital allocation as catalyst: Board authorized a $25M share repurchase and raised the quarterly dividend 29% to $0.09; net debt fell to $365M with leverage ~22% at quarter-end .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Outperformance vs industry: “first quarter RevPAR growth of 4 percent basically doubled the industry performance of 2 percent” (COO) .
- Tech market strength: Silicon Valley +8% RevPAR, Greater New York +11%, Los Angeles +14%; strong flow-through and margin control .
- Capital actions and balance sheet: $25M buyback authorization; dividend increased to $0.09; net debt down to $365M and leverage ~22% .
- Quote: “We delivered adjusted FFO per share near the top of our guidance range” (CEO) .
What Went Wrong
- April softness and holiday timing: RevPAR down ~4% in April; 10 days around Passover/Easter down ~15%, pressuring near-term growth outlook .
- Leisure and select markets softness: Coastal Northeast −8%, San Diego −11% YoY; hotel EBITDA margin −30 bps YoY to 31% .
- Government-related demand pullback in D.C. required quick sales pivot; normalized Street expectations for Q2 reflect negative RevPAR growth (–2% to –0.5%) .
Financial Results
Segment breakdown – largest markets:
Brand KPIs:
Monthly cadence (comparable hotels):
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We’re in great shape to use our low leverage… and we view the share repurchase plan as another tool… At current trading levels, we are trading at approximately $150,000 per key and at an approximate 9.5% cap rate on forecasted 2025 NOI” (CEO) .
- “Yet again, our RevPAR growth significantly outperformed the industry… GOP and hotel EBITDA margins were strong this quarter, and we were able to generate Adjusted FFO per share at the top of our guidance range” (CEO) .
- “Silicon Valley, our largest market, produced solid RevPAR growth of 8 percent… We set post-pandemic first quarter highs in both occupancy and ADR” (COO) .
- “As we look forward… demand remains strong; however, the ability to grow RevPAR… is somewhat limited… we’re currently projecting flat RevPAR given the uncertainty in the economy” (CEO) .
Q&A Highlights
- Capital allocation: Management prioritizing accretive share repurchases given dislocation and targeting acquisitions only at or above ~9% yields; leveraging Island Hospitality underwriting for value-add opportunities .
- Portland development: Proceeding through entitlements; tariffs and cost uncertainty make timing cautious despite favorable projected returns .
- Phoenix Home2 Suites performance: New hotel ramping well; strong GM and corporate mix delivering top-five RevPAR and GOP .
- Government/segment mix: D.C. hotels pivoted to leisure to offset government pullback; May expected down ~2% vs March −8% in D.C. segment .
- Expense discipline: Headcount flexed down ~6% into April; no “deep cuts,” but margin management amid softer backdrop .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 comparison: CLDT beat revenue and EPS, and modestly exceeded EBITDA consensus; normalized net income was far above Street’s negative expectation (S&P Global).
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | |--------|-----------|--------|----------| | Revenue ($USD Millions) | 68.3* | 68.6 | +0.3 | | Diluted EPS ($USD) | (0.07)* | (0.01) | +$0.06 | | EBITDA ($USD Millions) | 17.7* | 17.9 | +0.2 | | Net Income Normalized ($USD Millions) | (7.7)* | 1.5 | +9.2 |
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Where estimates may need to adjust:
- FY 2025 estimates likely drift lower to reflect revised RevPAR (0–1%), Adjusted EBITDA ($89–$93M), and AFFO/share ($0.95–$1.03) guidance ranges .
- Near-term Q2 expectations should incorporate negative RevPAR growth (–2% to –0.5%) due to holiday timing and April weakness .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term softness is largely calendar/macro-driven; core business-travel and tech-centric markets remain strong, supporting medium-term recovery once uncertainty abates .
- FY 2025 guide reset reduces top/bottom-line ranges; positioning estimates conservatively around the midpoints helps avoid disappointment in a choppy demand backdrop .
- Share repurchase authorization and dividend increase provide downside support and signal confidence; buybacks are accretive at current implied cap rates .
- Asset recycling de-risked the portfolio and improved leverage (~22%); extended-stay concentration (61% of rooms; ~65% of LTM hotel EBITDA) remains a structural advantage .
- Watch regional mix: LA and tech markets driving outperformance; San Diego and Coastal Northeast weaker; D.C. pivot underway—monitor May/June booking trends .
- Margin discipline credible: GOP +30 bps YoY despite RevPAR mix; expense controls (labor/benefits/utilities normalization) support EBITDA resilience .
- Trading implication: Balanced stance—capitalize on buyback/dividend support against lowered FY guide; catalysts include confirmation of resumed RevPAR momentum and accretive acquisitions above ~9% yields .